Impact Calculus Ladder
Weigh two competing impacts four ways (magnitude, probability, timeframe, reversibility), arguing both sides of each lens.
Write two impacts on a page: one big and speculative (economic collapse, escalation to conflict) and one small and certain (a measurable harm to a specific group). These are the rungs of your ladder.
Partner A gets 45 seconds to argue the big impact wins on magnitude. Partner B answers by weighing probability. Then A takes timeframe and B takes reversibility. Swap impacts and run it again, so each of you argues both sides of every lens.
Talk through which comparisons felt strongest. You’re building fluency: in a real summary you should be able to reach for the lens that favors your side within seconds of hearing the other team’s impact.
Variations
Strength-of-link round
Add a fifth rung: whose link chain has fewer steps? Practicing this lens teaches you to attack the chain as well as the endpoint.